UFC 270 Betting Preview and Tips

Francis Ngannou vs. Ciryl Gane

On January 22, 2022, we will be treated to the first mega fight of the year when UFC Heavyweight Champion Francis Ngannou meets surging Interim Champion Ciryl Gane. It isn’t too often that a divisional champion is listed as the underdog, but that’s exactly the scenario in the main event as Ngannou sits as a +135 underdog to Gane’s -155. At heavyweight, one punch can quickly change the tide of a bout and if any heavyweight on the planet has that capability, it’s Ngannou. However, Ngannou is an unproven commodity in a drawn-out battle having lost both of his bouts that extended past the second round. Conversely, Gane has proven on more than one occasion that he is capable of going the full 25-minute distance whilst still extending strong offence. Gane has also exhibited extraordinary defence in his striking battles, managing his distance well and picking opponents apart from distance. These attributes are quite likely to cause Ngannou many issues, unless Ngannou can crack Gane early. Historically in heavyweight title fights, the fighter relying on punching power alone does not succeed as often as those that have the cardiovascular advantage – i.e. Cain Velasquez over Junior Dos Santos twice; Brock Lesnar over Shane Carwin; Stipe Miocic over Ngannou. At -155, there is still value on Gane, but with money constantly coming in on him, that line may change very quickly.

Play: Ciryl Gane to Win (-155)

Brandon Moreno vs. Deiveson Figueiredo 3

In the co-main event, Brandon Moreno meets Deiveson Figueiredo in their Flyweight title fight trilogy bout. Figueiredo has been an incredible finisher in a division where the finish rate is slightly lower than average – having finished seven of his nine victories in the UFC. However, Figueiredo has one very glaring issue – he has difficulty making the 125-pound weight limit. While his size helps with finishing fights, it becomes a detriment in longer contests as he consistently tires the longer a fight goes. Meanwhile, at 28 years old, Moreno has truly hit his stride, exhibiting fast hands and great wrestling. Unlike Figueredo, Moreno has no trouble going the distance and maintains a very good pace throughout. Combine this with the overall lower knockout rate for the Flyweight division and it is no surprise that Moreno is the favourite at -180 to Figueiredo who sits as a +155 underdog. While the pick is Moreno, there isn’t enough value on the line to take him straight up. Instead, I’ll be using Moreno as an anchor for a few parlays with other picks from the card.

Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Jourdain

Topuria was initially slated to face Movsar Evloev, however, Evloev pulled out from the fight just over one week out from the bout. This opened the door for Charles Jourdain to jump in and take his place. The initial matchup was between two undefeated prospects and the line was quite close. However, with Jourdain taking the bout on very short notice and sporting just a 3-3-1 UFC record, the odds have Topuria as a massive -510 favorite over Jourdain, who currently sits as a +375 underdog. In my view, Topuria is one of the best prospects in the featherweight division, having fantastic stopping power, high fight IQ, and an opportunistic submission game. Jourdain could play spoiler, having power himself, but with the short notice and his more well-rounded skillset, Topuria has to be the pick. However, at the current line, there is absolutely no value on betting Topuria outright. Instead, I’ll be parlaying Topuria with Moreno for better value.

Play: Moreno to Win + Topuria to Win (-116)

Cody Stamann vs Said Nurmagomedov

In this striker vs grappler matchup, Nurmagomedov currently sits as a -200 favourite over Stamann at +170. While Nurmagomedov has shown fantastic striking ability, the line is definitely lopsided in his favour – potentially due to his last name. However, it’s also a struggle to foresee a clear route for Stamann to win as he will have to try to outgrapple Nurmagomedov for at least two out of the three rounds – a conceivable but quite unlikely scenario. However, what is likely is this bout going the distance – with Stamann having gone the distance in eight of his last nine bouts and Nurmagomedov having gone the distance in seven of his last ten. With a prop bet of over 2.5 rounds sitting at -290, the only profitable way to play with it is to once again parlay it with the parlay anchor, Moreno.

Play: Moreno to Win + Stamann/Nurmagomedov over 2.5 rounds (+109)

Plays Summary:

  1. Ciryl Gane to Win (-155)
  2. Brandon Moreno to Win + Ilia Topuria to Win (-116)
  3. Brandon Moreno to Win + Stamann/Nurmagomedov over 2.5 rounds (+109)  

Best of Luck and Bet Responsibly!

*All odds found via Draftkings.

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