UFC 279: Bettors are all-in on Diaz despite 11% implied probability

The UFC 279 welterweight showdown promises to be a showstopper as veteran Nate Diaz will meet rising star Khamzat Chimaev in the octagon on September 10^th at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV.

If you haven’t checked the betting odds yet, they’re shocking: Chimaev is currently an incredible -1500 favorite at online sportsbook, BetUS.com, which means his implied probability to win is nearly 94% (and that’s actually down from where oddsmakers opened – at one point Chimaev was -2000, or an implied probability to win of more than 95%).  At those odds, a person would have to risk $1,500 just to make a $100 profit.

Diaz, for his part, is listed as a +750 underdog, or an implied probability to win of less than 12%.  Oddsmakers clearly have little faith in the Stockton, California native, who was responsible for one of the biggest UFC upsets when he defeated Connor McGregor by submission in 2016.

But BetUS customers don’t agree at all with the sportsbook’s oddsmakers, according to data released today by the company, which says that an incredible 89% of wagers placed by their customers have been on Nate Diaz.

“This bout is the last fight on Diaz’ UFC contract and we all know he loves a good fight. Chimaev is somewhat new to the UFC, but he’s an incredible 11-0 and that’s why we see him as such a favorite coming into this fight.  But betting Chimaev at those odds is a lot of risk for little reward – you’d have to risk $1,500 just to win $100 – and is probably why so many of our customers are taking the long odds-on Diaz.  If Diaz pulls off an upset here, it’ll be a payday for many of our customers,” says Barry Barger, senior betting analyst at BetUS.

Diaz is 21-13-0, but it seems that customers are relying on the finisher to end his UFC run with a bang.

Photo Credit: Christian Petersen / Staff

Roberto Villa

Roberto Villa is the CEO, Founder, Executive Writer, Senior Editor of FightBook MMA. Has a passion for Combat Sports and also a podcast host for Sitting Ringside. He’s also a former MMA fighter and Kickboxer.