UFC Vegas 104: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 Preview, Predictions, and Fight Analysis

Wedged between UFC 313, where Magomed Ankalaev just dethroned Alex Pereira, and the UFC’s return to London on March 22, we have a middleweight showcase for UFC Vegas 104 at the trusty Apex as Marvin Vettori and Roman Dolidze do battle for a second time in an attempt to climb the 185 lb rankings.

Matching the pre-event palpable excitement for UFC 313 this past weekend might be out of the question, and the schedule isn’t stacked with huge names. However, we have some intriguing UFC Vegas 104 bouts on paper, most notably the middleweight rematch between top-15-ranked brutes Vettori and Dolidze.  

All roads lead to Saturday! 👊

It all goes down THIS SATURDAY at #UFC104!

Who you got?! pic.twitter.com/guav3lw0kb

— UFC (@ufc) March 10, 2025

UFC Vegas 104 Information

• Date: Saturday, March. 15, 2025 – 01:00 p.m. ET  
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas   
• Where to Watch: UFC Fight Pass & ESPN+   
• UFC Vegas 104 Main Event: Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze 
• UFC Vegas 104 Co-Main Event: Elizeu Zaleski vs. Chidi Njokuani  

Marvin “The Italian Dream” Vettori Preview    

A 7-1-1 UFC record en route to earning his maiden UFC middleweight title opportunity kick-started Marvin Vettori’s career in the big leagues to an almost perfect beginning. Even in defeat to Israel Adesanya, the then champ at 185-pounds, Vettori was considered as one of the division’s most well-rounded, and difficult-to-defeat opponents. 

Unfortunately, for the man who was Italy’s greatest hope of lifting UFC gold, life after receiving an opportunity at championship status in 2021 has been hit-or-miss. He’s fought on just four occasions since losing to Adesanya, collecting a 50% win rate in bouts versus Paulo Costa, Robert Whittaker, Roman Dolidze, and Jared Cannonier.

Surprisingly, and after suffering an injury in 2024, we haven’t seen ‘The Italian Dream’ compete in just under two years. Should his absence be a cause for concern? While he isn’t known for his flashy style, or back catalogue of highlight reels, Vettori has been a consistent workhorse, and under the close eye of MMA Kingz, it’s doubtful that the 31-year-old has dropped a beat during his layoff. More interestingly, one of those winning contests above, just so happens to be his weekend foe, Dolidze.

Will history repeat itself, or can the Georgian underdog rectify his 2023 defeat to Italy’s finest? Check out the tweet HERE.

Roman “The Caucasian” Dolidze      

The country of Georgia has truly impacted professional mixed martial arts of late, especially under Dana White’s UFC banner. Ilia Topuria has become a global superstar following his dominance in the featherweight division, while Merab Dvalishvili, behind a 12-fight win streak and successes over the likes of Sean O’Malley, and Umar Nurmagomedov, is the unstoppable machine at bantamweight currently defending the throne.

With inspiration surrounding him, could Roman Dolidze be the next Georgian born fighter to make a huge impact on the Ultimate Fighting Championship? 

Four years, and eleven UFC bouts later, Dolidze has built a respectable resume. His 8-3 promotional record isn’t something to turn your nose up at, and when your only recent losses are against the man who just defeated Adesanya, Nassourdine Imavov, and a former title challenger in Vettori, the levels to his game are self-explanatory. 

Dolidze is no mid-tier journeyman; he’s more than that. In his last octagon appearance, he took a light heavyweight bout against Anthony Smith before proving too strong for Kevin Holland, causing an injury and an early stoppage win. 

With back-to-back wins against top level talent, will Dolidze continue his win streak into 2025? Or will past setbacks come to haunt him?     

The Tale of The Tape  

	Marvin Vettori	Roman Dolidze
Country	Italy	Georgia
Age	31	36
Pro Record (Win/Loss)	19-6-1	14-3-0
KO/Submission	2 KOs, 9 Submissions	8 KOs, 3 Submissions
Height	6’0”	6’2”
Reach	74.0”	76.0”
Team	Kings MMA	Xtreme Couture
Win/Loss Streak	1 Loss	2 Wins
Win/Loss Record (Last 5)	L/W/L/W/L	W/W/L/L/W

Inside the Octagon: Skillset Analysis

What can we take from the first fight?      

The first fight between Dolidze and Vettori resulted in the latter taking a unanimous decision. Hopefully, you made use of a Fanatics betting promotion – if you backed the favorite because his moneyline was juiced. Ultimately, the story of this fight was heavy strikes (Dolidze) versus work rate (Vettori), as the judges favored the latter unanimously. We saw Dolidze land 71 significant strikes at a 73% clip, while Vettori dropped 106 significant strikes at 56%, with the obvious difference-maker being low kicks from the Italian which evidently slowed the Georgian down. 

We must now ask ourselves how much has changed in two years since that first fight? 

Given the fact that Vettori has barely competed, and Dolidze has consecutive wins from 2024, it’s difficult to gauge. Still, oddsmakers, having placed a +120 on Dolidze compared to his +220 in the first fight against Vettori, clearly believe the cage rust of ‘The Italian Dream’ might be a factor heading into UFC Vegas 104.  

Skillset comparisons over five rounds      

The main difference between Vettori vs. Dolidze then and now would be the number of rounds. Vettori notched a dub in the first fight with three rounds, but Saturday’s rematch will be a 25-minute war across five rounds. 

Cardio concerns for Dolidze have been highlighted in the past. Still, when you consider that he hung around with Imavov for five rounds, and turned the fight into a brawl late on, we have reasons to believe that his durability and cardio should check out. Then, we have Vettori, who’s experience in five-round fights is more extensive, with 5 of his last 8 UFC bouts being scheduled as five-rounders.

In the first fight, Dolidze was reckless when attempting to walk down Vettori and land those kill shots. In contrast, Vettori displayed calculated counter-striking, an ability to mix his shots well, while also being technical from both inside and at-range positions. 

I don’t envision cardio being an issue for either fighter, but if one man has more in the tank heading into those championship rounds, it has to be Vettori. Again, much like the first fight, Dolidze will land shots that seem more impactful. Still, as the more technical fighter who can also muscle off any potential wrestling attempts from the Georgian, this one feels like Vettori’s fight to lose. 

The elephant in the room will be Vettori’s long layoff. However, we’re not talking about a mid-thirties fighter here. He’s just turned 31, and as we may not have even seen his prime yet, it’s arguable that UFC Vegas 104 could present the best version of Vettori we’ve seen to date.   

Vettori vs. Dolidze Trends  

• Vettori won the first fight with Dolidze by unanimous decision 
• Vettori has won 9 of his 15 UFC bouts (78% by decision) 
• All 3 of Dolidze’s UFC losses were by decision
• Dolidze is 2-2 in his last 4 UFC bouts 

Vettori vs. Dolidze: UFC Vegas 104 Best Bet  

If you’re attacking the UFC Vegas 104 betting odds this weekend, consider this: We’re getting Marvin Vettori at a respectable moneyline price (-140), which is almost 100 points higher than what we received in his first fight with Dolidze, which he actually won. Strictly from a wagering stand-point, it’s a no-brainer that Vettori is the side; however, these UFC betting odds are all dependent on how much you factor in Vettori’s recent losses and 1 year, and eight month layoff. 

Personally, and as previously highlighted, I don’t worry too much about cage rust when a fighter is still young and competing in their prime. Dolidze may have found success of late, but he’s 36, has never won a five-round fight in the UFC, and is going against a younger, faster opponent with extensive experience in 25-minute wars.   

Durability will unquestionably lead this fight to the judges’ scorecards no matter who walks out of the Apex victorious, but give me Vettori to replicate the first fight and bring home another decision win, as the workhorse that he is! 

My Best Bet 1: Marvin Vettori Wins

My Best Bet 2: The Fight Goes to Decision