Supercomputer gives Mike Tyson just 34.8% chance to beat Jake Paul

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Mike Tyson has been given just a 34.8% chance of beating Jake Paul by the JeffBet SuperComputer, with the former YouTuber given a 63.6% chance of winning.

The former heavyweight champion, who has not won a fight since 2003, returns to the ring to face a man 31 years his junior in Arlington, Texas. Paul, who has amassed a record of 10-1 since turning pro almost five years ago, has knocked out seven opponents en route to the biggest fight of his career.

Tyson, who first held the world heavyweight title in 1986 at the age of just 20, has almost five times more wins in his career than Paul has appearances in the ring. However, Father Time is undefeated and undisputed and the 58-year-old is a shadow of ‘Iron Mike’ who terrorised an entire division nearly 40 years ago.

According to the JeffBet SuperComputer, Paul has a 63.6% chance of beating Tyson on the night and has a 40% chance of stopping the legend. Tyson has a 34.8% chance of winning, with a stoppage win backed at 26.7%.

Should the fight go the distance, Paul has been given a 26.3% chance of winning while Tyson has just a 7.7% chance of winning on the judges’ scorecards. There is a 9.1% chance the fight ends in a draw, which would lend itself to a lucrative rematch.

There is a 38.1% chance that Paul will be knocked down in the bout, while there is a much larger 55.6% chance that Tyson gets knocked down. 

How does the SuperComputer work?

The SuperComputer is a probability model built by a team of data specialists using a multitude of different variables including current form, historical performances and betting market odds.

Once the code has been written and the model created, simulations are run 1,000 times to rule out anomalous results and create as accurate a SuperComputer as possible. For instance, from the 1,000 simulations of the main event, Paul won 636 times.

Jake Paul to win – 63.6%

Mike Tyson to win – 34.8%

Jake Paul to win by KO/TKO – 40%

Mike Tyson to win by KO/TKO – 26.7%

Jake Paul to win by decision – 26.3%

Mike Tyson to win by decision – 7.7%

Draw – 9.1%

Jake Paul to be knocked down – 38.1%

Mike Tyson to be knocked down – 55.6%